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ICE to EV upgrade

Compare keeping your current petrol or diesel car against upgrading to an electric vehicle — purchase, trade-in, incentives, and running costs over your projection horizon.

Calculator vehicles

Logic updated April 2026

This calculator compares two paths over a multi-year horizon: keeping your existing internal-combustion (ICE) vehicle versus upgrading to an electric vehicle (EV) now. It accounts for the trade-in value of the ICE car, any incentives reducing the EV purchase price, the running cost differences, and depreciation on both vehicles. The break-even year is the first whole year cumulative EV cost drops below cumulative ICE cost.

How this is calculated

Formula 

EV net upfront = evPurchasePrice − iceTradeIn − incentives ; depreciation(year n) = value × (1 − rate)^n ; cumulativeICE(n) = sum of running costs + ICE depreciation ; cumulativeEV(n) = upfront + sum of running costs + EV depreciation

Step-by-step

  1. Calculate EV net upfront cost: EV purchase price minus the ICE trade-in value minus any incentives or rebates
  2. Apply declining-balance depreciation to both vehicles year by year
  3. Each year, accumulate ICE running costs (fuel, insurance, maintenance, registration)
  4. Each year, accumulate EV running costs (charging, insurance, maintenance, registration) — typically lower fuel/charging and maintenance
  5. Track cumulative cost under both paths year by year
  6. Break-even year is the first whole year cumulative EV total drops below cumulative ICE total
Rounding mode
ROUND_HALF_UP
Precision
20-digit internal precision (Decimal.js), rounded to 2 decimal places for display
Logic last reviewed

Assumptions & limitations

What this calculator assumes

  • Annual running costs are constant for the projection horizon
  • Depreciation uses a declining-balance model — value at year N = value at year 0 × (1 − rate)^N
  • Trade-in value of the existing ICE car is its current resale value
  • Incentives are deducted upfront from the EV purchase price
  • Net upfront cost of the EV = purchase price − ICE trade-in value − incentives
  • Break-even is the first year where cumulative EV cost drops below cumulative ICE cost
  • No financing costs are modelled — model the EV financed price separately if relevant

What this calculator doesn’t account for

  • Doesn't model fuel or electricity price changes during the horizon
  • Doesn't include battery replacement costs that may apply to long-horizon EV ownership
  • Doesn't factor in EV technology improvements (newer models becoming available later)
  • Doesn't include charging infrastructure investment (home charger purchase and install)
  • Doesn't model insurance rate differences in detail

Worked example

An owner of a 5-year-old ICE car worth $15,000 (resale) considers upgrading to a $50,000 EV with $5,000 of incentives. Running costs: $3,000/year ICE vs $1,200/year EV. Both depreciate 10%/year. Projection: 8 years.

Input Value
ICE current value (trade-in) $15,000
EV purchase price / incentives $50,000 / $5,000
ICE / EV annual running cost $3,000 / $1,200
Both depreciation rate 10%/year
Projection 8 years

EV net upfront: $30,000 — ICE cumulative cost (8y): ~$33,500 — EV cumulative cost (8y): ~$48,500 — Break-even: not within 8 years

EV net upfront is $30k ($50k − $15k trade-in − $5k incentives). Annual saving on running cost is $1,800. Over 8 years that's $14,400 — not enough to recover the $30k upfront. The break-even moves to ~year 17 in this scenario. The math improves dramatically with bigger fuel-cost gaps (heavy mileage), larger incentives, or strong EV residuals — try the EV savings calculator alongside this one to vary fuel-cost assumptions.

Frequently asked questions

When does upgrading to an EV make financial sense?

When the running-cost saving × ownership years is greater than the net upfront cost (EV price minus trade-in minus incentives). High annual mileage shortens payback dramatically — at 30,000 km/year, the running-cost saving can be $3,000+ a year. Aggressive incentives and a strong trade-in value also matter. The pure-financial answer is rarely 'yes' for low-mileage drivers; it often is for high-mileage drivers.

How do I calculate the break-even point?

The calculator tracks cumulative cost year by year for each path. The break-even year is the first year cumulative EV total drops below cumulative ICE total. Below break-even, you're financially better off keeping the ICE; above, the EV starts paying back. Typical break-even points are 5–10 years for high-mileage upgrades, 15+ years (or never) for low-mileage scenarios.

What running cost savings should I expect?

Two big buckets: fuel/charging (typically $1,000–$3,000/year saving for 15,000 km/year drivers) and maintenance (typically $200–$600/year saving — fewer moving parts, no oil changes, less brake wear). Insurance and registration may differ by jurisdiction. The biggest variance is fuel/electricity costs — drivers with cheap home charging and high mileage see the largest annual savings.

Should I wait for cheaper EVs?

Possibly. EV prices have generally fallen and continue to fall, while incentives in some jurisdictions are being scaled back. Waiting 1–2 years for next-generation models often yields better range, lower price, or both — but you keep paying ICE running costs in the meantime. Run the calculator with conservative future-EV assumptions to see if waiting is materially better.

Does the calculator include financing?

No — the model uses cash-equivalent comparison. If you'd finance the EV, layer in the total interest as an upfront cost adjustment. Financing typically adds $5,000–$10,000 of interest over a 5-year loan on a $40,000 EV at typical rates, which extends break-even by 2–4 years. The car loan calculator can give you the interest figure to add in.

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